Sunday 22 June 2014

Cricket stats and betting

Stats play an important role in betting on cricket. They form a key part of my match betting preparation and a good grasp of them can be the difference between profit or loss.

Cricket is awash with stats so it is important to focus in on the ones that are important. I break them down into useful or useless from a betting perspective.

I like to know stats that might help give me an edge in a market being offered by a bookmaker rather than something that is of more general interest to a cricket enthusiast.

Useful stats for me are things like knowing a Twenty 20 ground is in the top 5 six hitting venues in the world, or the lowest Multi 4s ground in the world, or an ODI venue having a huge bat first win percentage in day / night games. I don't really care about what the highest 3rd wicket partnership at a venue is.

Tuesday 17 June 2014

My stats: Info and disclaimer

I'll discuss elsewhere general information on cricket stats as well as giving examples of both good and bad stats and the benefits and dangers of using them.

This post is more about a warning, explanation and disclaimer of the stats I'll be giving on CricTrade in due course. It's to avoid any doubt or confusion about any cricket statistics I might mention.

Most the stats I'll give will be from my own database. It has several thousand games in it across all formats, covering more than 175 venues and over 100 teams.

The reports it produces are tailored to betting markets with the aim of being useful tools to find edges rather than of a general interest to cricket enthusiasts. There are far more comprehensive cricket databases out there.

When creating reports during match betting preparation I filter the results to what I feel are relevant games. This generally means:

Thursday 12 June 2014

Cricket betting - Match preparation

I suspect it's going to become a recurring theme through the blog but for me preparation is everything when it comes to betting on a cricket match.

By preparation I mean research. Understanding the issues that will effect the match I'm about to speculate in,  trying to ensure I don't lose money as a result of missing something stupid, and hunting for edges that will give me an advantage over the markets.

So how do I go about doing this?

Saturday 7 June 2014

Why bet on cricket?

I've bet on a number of sports over the years but ended up specialising in cricket to the extent that it now makes up a vast percentage of my overall betting profit.

When starting out as a punter it became obvious fairly quickly that specialising in particular areas would prove more profitable than a random scattergun approach with little research into bets or understanding of the markets they were being placed into.

It has its faults but Malcolm Gladwell's book Outliers: The Story of Success helps explain the principle at stake here. Essentially the more you do something the better at it you can become. Gladwell famously refers to the Anders Ericsson's 10,000 hour rule arguing that the key to success in any field is a matter of practising the task a lot. He argues 10,000 hours is the key milestone.

After deciding to specialise on betting in a particular area it follows that it makes sense to concentrate on something it is possible to make a decent profit on. For example I could be the world's best informed, best bankrolled punter on the annual Oxford v Cambridge boat race. But with one race a year and relatively small betting markets if I was relying on it to make my living I would be a pauper.

So when choosing a sport to concentrate betting on what is needed is one that is:

Wednesday 4 June 2014

About Me

Why cricket
Cricket can be bet on year round, Asian money means markets are liquid, and with so many variables making up the in running prices it is hard to model accurately meaning value can be found. I like watching it too. A fuller explanation is here.

Are you full time
Yes. I have other interests but it's not unrealistic to expect to trade more than 250 cricket matches a year.

How much have you won
I live comfortably but am no whale. Under 7 figures.

Do you keep your own cricket stats
Yes. My database has several thousand games in across all formats. Mainly 20, 40 and 50 over matches.

Do you work alone or as part of a team
I have done both. No, I've never been part of Tony Bloom's cricket betting outfit.

Where do you bet
Depends where the best place to put the bet on is. I've used Indian cricket markets, betting exchanges, bookmakers and spread betting firms.

Do you ever go to cricket matches
I've been to games both in the UK and abroad. I watch the vast majority of games I trade from home.

Any betting cliches to pass on
Go on then. Fail to prepare and prepare to fail.

Sunday 1 June 2014

Hello world

Hello indeed. Welcome to the notepad for my thoughts on cricket betting.

Truth be told I doubt I'll be a prolific blogger. But I hope to be an interesting one.

I've been betting on cricket for the best part of a decade now. Over that time I've learned a lot. I hope to give some insight into what I do, how I do it, and why.

I'm sure I'll also comment on any current issues that effect cricket betting itself. And no doubt also use the space to have a moan about any gripes that bug me.

I don't intend to give tip after tip. Though I might discuss some. I suspect I'll be more interested in trading ideas and themes, examining the stats behind cricket betting, and the behaviour of various betting markets.

If I manage to generate some discussion or correspondence along the way then all the better.

I think that's nearly it for now. There's just one thing left to say.